Ankara, Turkey – If the Karabakh resolution is accepted, the next stop of Turkish Army will be the Caucasus. Thus, the number of countries where Turkey has a military presence abroad will increase to 15. Turkey, on the other hand, has the second most active military abroad after the United States.

After the decision was made to establish a Turkish-Russian joint peacekeeping Center in Karabakh, the next stop of Turkish Army will be the Caucasus, if the motion, which is expected to come to Parliament next week, is adopted.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) will conduct surveillance and monitoring activities in Karabakh for the ceasefire with Russia. Turkey already has a military presence in Asia, Europe and Africa.

Serving in Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Albania, TRNC, Qatar, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Mali, Sudan, Central African Republic and Libya, the TAF has military bases in most of these countries, while in some countries Turkish Army serves in the international peacekeeping force.

According to the Turkish newspaper, The number of countries where Turkey has a military presence abroad will increase to 15 if the Karabakh declaration, which is expected to come to Parliament, is adopted. The Turkish military also plays the role of a deterrent peacekeeping force under international agreements.

Turkey has long had troops in foreign countries, some of them consisting of combat forces. The vast majority of them serve to train the armies of the countries in which they are located. According to a UK study, Turkey has the second most active military abroad after the United States.

Largest base in Somalia

The largest military base abroad is in Somalia, a strategically important point. Based in the capital Mogadishu, it provides training support to the Somali army. In Libya, the TAF provides training and consulting services for the formation of a corporate Army. Turkey also has a peacekeeping mission in some countries. In this context, the Turkish army is one of the most active armies in NATO and the UN.

The Turkish military is serving as peacekeepers in Afghanistan, Mali, Central African Republic, Albania, Lebanon, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. Since 2017, the Turkish military has been deployed in Qatar, while Turkey has two military bases in that country. Since the Cyprus peace operation in 1974, Turkey has kept troops in the TRNC. It is noted that the Turkish soldier in the TRNC is about 40 thousand.

Why Turkey is flexing its muscles abroad

Immediately after a long-simmering conflict in the South Caucasus burst into open warfare late last month, Turkey came to the aid of its Turkic allies in Azerbaijan. It has supplied arms and, allegedly, fighters transferred from Syria, although that has been denied in Turkey.

Unlike most outside powers that called for an immediate ceasefire, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev to fight on.

The Caucasus is only the latest venture for a more muscular Turkey, whose military engagements have stretched from Syria across the Mediterranean.

Where has Turkey become involved?

In the last few years, Turkey has:

launched three military incursions into Syria
sent military supplies and fighters to Libya
deployed its navy to the Eastern Mediterranean to assert its claims in the region
expanded its military operations against Kurdish PKK rebels in northern Iraq
sent military reinforcements to Syria’s last rebel-held province of Idlib
recently threatened a new military operation in northern Syria to confront “terrorist armed groups”.

Turkey also has a military presence in Qatar, Somalia and Afghanistan and maintains peacekeeping troops in the Balkans. Its global military footprint is the most expansive since the days of the Ottoman Empire.

What is behind Turkey’s new foreign policy?
Turkey’s reliance on hard power to secure its interests is the cornerstone of its new foreign policy doctrine, in the making since 2015.

The new doctrine is deeply suspicious of multilateralism and urges Turkey to act unilaterally when necessary.

It is anti-Western. It believes that the West is in decline and Turkey should cultivate closer ties to countries such as Russia and China.

It is anti-imperialist. It challenges the Western-dominated World War Two order and calls for an overhaul of international institutions such as the United Nations, to give voice to nations other than the Western countries.

The new foreign policy doctrine views Turkey as a country surrounded by hostile actors and abandoned by its Western allies.

Therefore, it urges Turkey to pursue a proactive foreign policy that rests on the use of pre-emptive military power outside its borders.

This is a far cry from Turkey’s previous focus on diplomacy, trade and cultural engagement in its relations with other nations. The change is a function of several domestic and international developments.

What changed?
Turkey’s new doctrine began to take shape in 2015, when the ruling AKP lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in over a decade due to the rise of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).

To regain the ruling party’s majority, Mr Erdogan formed an alliance with nationalists both on the right and left.

They backed him when he resumed the fight against the Kurdish rebels.

How focus turned to Kurds
Turkey’s conflict with the PKK – Kurdistan Workers’ Party – had to a large extent stopped after the group’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called for a ceasefire with the Turkish state in 2013.

Despite their ideological differences, both the far-right nationalist MHP and neo-nationalists on the left support a heavy-handed approach to the Kurdish problem. They also prioritise national security at home and abroad and espouse strong anti-Western views.

With their support, President Erdogan also switched the country’s parliamentary system to a presidential one granting him sweeping powers.

This alliance with the nationalists and consolidation of his power became the key driving factor behind Turkey’s unilateralist, militaristic and assertive foreign policy.

The failed 2016 coup played a key role in this process.

How coup changed the narrative
According to President Erdogan, the botched coup was orchestrated by US ally Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic cleric in self-exile in Pennsylvania, and it did several things to pave the way for Turkey’s militaristic foreign policy.

It strengthened President Erdogan’s alliance with the nationalists.

His sweeping purge of civil servants suspected of having links to the Gulen movement led to some 60,000 people being fired, jailed or suspended from the armed forces and judiciary, and some other state institutions.

The void left by the purges was filled with President Erdogan loyalists and nationalist supporters.

The failed coup also strengthened the nationalist coalition’s narrative that Turkey was besieged by domestic and foreign enemies and that the West was part of the problem. That justified unilateral action, supported by pre-emptive deployment of hard power beyond Turkey’s borders.

How approach changed in Syria
The Assad regime’s decision to give a free hand to Syria’s Kurds in the north led to an autonomous Kurdish zone along Turkey’s border and in 2014 the US decided to airdrop weapons to the Kurdish militants, considered to be a terrorist organization by Turkey. This all fed the narrative that Turkey had to act alone and deploy military forces to protect its borders.

The failed coup also paved the way for consolidation of power in President Erdogan’s hands.

Through purges he hollowed out institutions, sidelined key actors in foreign policymaking such as the foreign ministry, and emasculated the military, which had put a brake on his previous calls to launch military operations in neighbouring countries.

Before the coup attempt, he had signalled his intention to launch a military operation into Syria to stem the “terrorist threat” emanating from the Kurdish militias there. But Turkey’s military, which had traditionally been very cautious about troop deployment outside Turkey’s borders, was opposed.

A few months after the coup attempt, President Erdogan got his wish. Turkey launched its first military operation into Syria to curb the influence of the Kurds in the north in 2016 and two more incursions after that.

The move was applauded by the president’s nationalist allies, who fear an independent Kurdish state built with US help along its border. To curb Kurdish influence and counterbalance the US presence in Syria he worked with Russia.

How Turkey switched focus to Libya and Eastern Mediterranean
Libya became another theatre for hard-power tactics.

In January, Turkey stepped up military support to Libya’s UN-backed government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj, to stop an offensive by forces allied with General Khalifa Haftar.

Turkey’s primary goal in Libya was to secure the Serraj government’s support in a matter important to President Erdogan’s nationalist allies: the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey has been at loggerheads with Greece and South Cyprus over energy drilling rights off the coast of the divided island of Cyprus and maritime boundaries in the area.

Turkey signed an agreement on maritime boundaries with Mr Serraj in November in return for military support to the Tripoli government.

President Erdogan’s aim was to redraw maritime borders in the Eastern Mediterranean which, in his opinion, provided disproportionate advantages to Turkey’s arch-enemies – Greece and South Cyprus.

Meanwhile, Turkey sent warships to escort its drilling ships in the Eastern Mediterranean, risking a military confrontation with its Nato partner Greece.