Baku, Azerbaijan – The attitudes of the regional states regarding the Azerbaijan – Armenia conflict and the possible effects of the conflict on the Middle East were examined.
It was emphasized that as the United States lost its main role in the region, countries such as Russia, Turkey, Iran and Israel began to take a more active role in the crises. The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict is considered a ‘worrying development’ by Israel due to Turkey and Iran’s strategic goals in the region.
He notes that Russia has not yet been involved in the conflict, but has given the appearance of a mediator who ‘stands one step closer to Armenia’, while Turkey, on the contrary, is actively on the side of Azerbaijan.
If Turkey is de facto involved in the game, Russia (in accordance with its desired role as a mediator) can look for ways to negotiate with Turkey. If we look at their diplomatic approach in Syria and Libya, we can say that this is a kind of Russian model. Russia is both in dispute with Turkey and sitting at the negotiating table. His primary goal is to Drive Western forces out of the region.
Iran is also one of the players who carefully follow the geography of the Caucasus. He has been carrying out a new railway project with Azerbaijan for some time. Iran’s main goal also overlaps with Russia: to build closer ties with China and Russia, in its desire to create a multipolar world.
This goal also attracts the interest of Turkey in one aspect, because Iran and Turkey have relatively warm relations. In addition, Iran has a serious population of Azerbaijani folk songs (living in Southern Azerbaijan) and cannot predict how its citizens will react to possible instability.
The US no longer seems to mind stopping wars as it did in the 1990s, meaning that Russia, Iran, Turkey and other centers will play a major role in conflicts in the Caucasus.
The European Union no longer plays a meaningful role, and most countries in the region believe that European countries often give dry statements and issue demonstrative declarations, other than that they do not do much. This blood towards the EU has been strengthened in the events of Syria, Libya, the eastern Mediterranean crises and finally Belarus.
Israel and Azerbaijan have close relations for many years, and also conduct defense trade with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is a Muslim country and one of the most open countries to Israel, but these relations are quite complex. Israel has no historical interest in the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For Israel, the problem is Turkey, the country in the region that it sees as the greatest danger to its own interests.
Relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan are becoming increasingly strong, and this has the potential to damage Israel’s position in the region. For example, in the past, Israel sold armed drones to Azerbaijan, while today Turkey has taken on this task.
Russia, Turkey and other states want to test the air defense and other military systems they have. Everyone wonders if Azerbaijan’s huge investment in Turkish Sikhs will help it win conflicts. Sihas will help reduce casualties, but it is also worth noting that they are never used tactically successfully to win a major battle.
Turkey is a new phenomenon in the UCAV industry, whereas Israel has historically been one of the leading countries in this field. Turkey was once one of the largest customers of the Heron brand UCAV produced by Israel, today the situation has changed.