Ankara, Turkey – Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan, noting that the Northern Marmara fracture passed through the Sea of Marmara, “The second arm, which we call the Tekirdag earthquake, will be through this fracture. The expected hypocenter of the Tekirdag arm will also be within 10-15 kilometers of the Sea of Marmara Ereğlisi, ” he said. “There will be a 2-2.5 metre slide in Marmara towards Greece,” he added.
High Geophysical Engineer Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan “The second arm, which we call the Tekirdag earthquake, will be over this fracture,” said Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan, noting that a Northern Marmara fracture has passed through the Sea of Marmara. The expected hypocenter of the Tekirdag arm will also be within 10-15 kilometers of the Sea of Marmara Ereğlisi. It will explode in a granite layer within 10-15 kilometers of the sea, showing an explosion in an east-west direction. At the same time,there will be a 1-1.5 m migration and a 2-2. 5 m shift in Marmara towards Greece. If you say what the magnitude of this earthquake is, it will be 7.2. This earthquake would be huge, ” he said.
High geophysical engineer Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan on 9 September, a 4.1 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Şarköy in the district. Dr. Ercan, who said that they are waiting for the earthquake in the mountain region, not in the sea, said: “the North Anatolian fracture comes ashore from the part where Ayvasil is located, about from where Uçmakdere is. From there, in front of Mursallı, where Güzelköy is located, it goes to Gölcük, from Gölcük to Çokal Dam, and from there to Saroz Bay. Normally, scientists agree that this place was broken again. But the last earthquake showed us that there is a diversion,” he said.
Dr. Ercan, who stated that the earthquake will go not from the mountain, but in the sea, said: “a Northern Marmara fracture passes through the Sea. The second arm, which we call the Tekirdag earthquake, will be through this fracture. The expected hypocenter of the Tekirdag arm will also be within 10-15 kilometers of the Sea of Marmara Ereğlisi. It will explode in a granite layer within 10-15 kilometers of the sea, showing an explosion in an east-west direction. At the same time,there will be a 1-1.5 m migration and a 2-2. 5 M shift in Marmara towards Greece. If you say what the magnitude of this earthquake is, it will be 7.2. This earthquake would be huge. If you say where this earthquake breaks, it will start from where Buyukcekmece is, it will pass Marmara Ereğlisi, it will pass in front of Uçmakdere, in front of Hosköy, in front of Şarköy, it will cut the Gallipoli peninsula from Şarköy and enter the Gulf of Saroz. From there it will go all the way to Thessaloniki,” he said.
Prof.Dr. Ahmet Ercan, the earthquake he mentioned is the Western position of the Northern Marmara earthquakes, stating, “There is also the eastern position of this. Its eastern branch is Istanbul. It is constantly referred to as the’ great Istanbul earthquake’. In fact, the earthquake is the great Istanbul and Tekirdag earthquake. The earthquake, which will now be in front of Istanbul, will be in the form of a break about 20-25 kilometers south of Küçükçekmece. As a result of this break, the ground will shift from about 1 to 1.5 meters to the West. In other words, the Anatolian peninsula will show a shift towards the Aegean. So, if you say what the earthquake size is, the earthquake size is between 6.3 and 6.7. The duration of this earthquake lasts about 16 to 18 seconds in front of Istanbul, but if the earthquake is in front of Tekirdag, the duration of it lasts about 30-35 seconds. So if you say which of them is more dangerous, they are both dangerous. The fact is, Istanbul has a lot of density. About 2,568 people per square kilometer live in Istanbul. But when you go west, there are about 200 people per square kilometer where the Tekirdağ tributary is located. In other words, the population density in Istanbul is higher, but the earthquake is smaller, but the number of deaths is greater. Although the earthquake is large due to the low population density when you come to Tekirdağ branch, the damage it will do is less. Therefore, we can survive these earthquakes completely immortal and without destruction,” he said.
Dr. Ercan, who said that the Republic of Turkey has always been criticized, said: “but there are also good aspects. In 2007 the earthquake regulation was changed, disliked. In 2017, a new earthquake ordinance was issued. Currently, earthquake regulation is the most modern earthquake regulation in the world. It’s not what you wrote there that matters, it’s what you practice. Urban transformation is the only solution in an earthquake, but our people are usually doing structural transformation. I mean, he washes it, he remakes it. This is not urban transformation. If you say what should happen, for example, the arrival of the word, the structures of Murefte, which will be completely destroyed, need to be demolished, re-planned, rebuilt. The structures of şarköy need to be redesigned. Istanbul’s structures need to be redesigned. Tekirdag’s structures need to be redesigned. Because when the construction industry comes into play, it runs about 200 items, and therefore the economy turns itself around. It’s important in that respect. In other words, it is an event in the hands of the Republic of Turkey and its compatriots that we survive this earthquake without undying destruction, we can do it,” he said.
Dr. Ercan, who stressed that people should not be afraid of earthquakes, said: “because it affects investments, it affects the economy, it affects finance and it affects people’s mood. Now you can’t expect a productive life from people who are in a bad mood. Therefore, earthquake News is not given as often as weather reports. An earthquake scientist tells me and stays there. Because earthquake conditions do not change in the size of years, or even in the size of 10 years. In 1999, I said, ‘there will be an earthquake in 2045.’ After that, if anything changed my mind, it didn’t. Because earthquake news is not given as a weather report. In other words, it is not necessary to cause fear to people, it is not necessary to cause fear to investors. If you say that there will be an earthquake in Istanbul, the stock market in Turkey will collapse, and foreign investment will not come.”