Tekirdag, Turkey – Geophysical engineer Prof Dr Övgün Ahmet Ercan claimed that the great earthquake in the Marmara region would be in Tekirdag. Dr. Ercan, participated in the panel ‘earthquake at our door at any moment’ organized by Tekirdag Marmara Ereglisi district municipality .
Dr Ercan, speaking at the panel, said that the safest provinces of Turkey in terms of earthquakes are Kırklareli and Edirne and Tekirdag in the northern regions. He said that the Ergene pit, Marmara Ereglisi, Mürefte and Şarköy coasts of the most unsafe and construction areas in Thrace should not be opened for construction, but this could not be prevented.
Dr Ercan said that the behavior of the northern Anatolian fracture is personality, starting from the East and going step by step towards the west.
Describing the earthquakes that occurred in the region in the past, Dr. Ercan said: “after all, Izmit 1999 earthquake will be the first time we Geophysical Engineers said in 1982. When I applied my algorithm in 1982, I said there could be an earthquake at any time after 1994. Of course, most of you didn’t remember this, because at that time, the earthquake issues were not so interesting. Then, with a delay of 5 years, the 1999 earthquake came and we lost 17,800 people. The energy released in this 7.5 magnitude earthquake was equivalent to the power of 130 atomic bombs,” he said.
“The earthquake that will be in front of Marmara Ereglisi is the earthquake of Tekirdag, Çanakkale, Istanbul, Balikesir, Bursa, Yalova and Kocaeli. Just as their earthquake affected us, our earthquake will affect this place. This means that this preparation should be done not only in Tekirdag, but also in all of the provinces that I consider. Because in the research I have done so far in Marmara, Marmara earthquakes occur in a whole behavior. An earthquake has a law, and this law says, ‘If there has been an earthquake of magnitude 7 somewhere, there will be an earthquake of the same magnitude in the same place in the future. ‘So the one who doesn’t know his history lives his history.
Dr Ercan, Marmara earthquake meters where they know whether the tension, stating, ” accordingly, from the west of Büyükçekmece to Şarköy is experiencing high tension. So part of the torag, where this tension is located, starts from Silivri, that is, it starts from the west of Istanbul, but most of it is located in Tekirdag province. According to this, Tekirdag province is waiting for an earthquake. The place where this earthquake will occur is the front of Marmara Ereglisi, where this beehive is the most dense. If you’d like, we’ll go outside and I can show you exactly where the earthquake will be. It will not only be the Marmara Ereglisi earthquake, it will be the earthquake of the whole Thrace region. If you say how this earthquake will break, it will break in an east-west direction. When an earthquake occurs, it will break both in the east-west direction and move the Thracian fracture, passing under the filling facilities located in this Marmara Ereglisi, it will go towards Corlu, I will also say that it will affect Corlu a lot, Lüleburgaz will have an impact through Babaeski to Edirne. In other words, this earthquake will not only be the Marmara Ereglisi earthquake, it will be the earthquake of all Thrace and the Marmara region,” he said.
Dr Ercan, he was asked about the great Istanbul earthquake, stating: “the earthquake that will be in front of Istanbul will be in front of Avcilar with Küçükçekmece and this earthquake will be between 6.4 and 6.7. So it won’t be big. If there was a big earthquake in Istanbul, friends, if you don’t know anything, look at the ruins there, today there would be no Hagia Sophia, no Bozdogan Arch, no Suleymania, the walls of Istanbul would remain. The walls of Yedikule are destroyed every time there is an earthquake. For me, the first earthquake will be under Küçükçekmece,” he said.
Dr. Ercan, who said that no one talks about the Tekirdag earthquake, said: “no one talks about the Tekirdag earthquake, everyone says Istanbul. However, the big earthquake will be in Tekirdag. The destructive force of the earthquake expected by Marmara Ereğlisi will also be 9. If you do not want to look for people under the wreckage in Marmara Ereğlisi, if you do not want to experience loss of life, all the structures on this coastline must be destroyed. If you don’t destroy them, the earthquake will destroy them all. People shouldn’t say my property first, they should say my life first. The cost of a person dying from an earthquake in the Republic of Turkey is 1 million 250 thousand dollars. Do you know how much investment per person should be made so that a person does not die in an earthquake? It’s only 5 grand,” he said.
Dr Ercan, who previously said that there will be no major earthquakes before 2045, told about the earthquakes in the region and said: “the Marmara Ereglisi earthquake will be more than 6 times the earthquake that will be in Istanbul. The force that will be released in the expected earthquake in Istanbul will be 4.3 atomic bombs. But the power that will be released in the earthquake that will be in Marmara Ereglisi will be equivalent to 24 atomic bombs. But we can survive this without loss of life,” he said.
Dr Ercan, 18 million people in a possible earthquake in Istanbul is not easy to take precautions, stating that 1 million 600 thousand structures should be converted, he said.
Dr Ercan “ 1 million 600 thousand structures for conversion once there is no money, so then there are some shortcomings in the law. And then people don’t help the administration with that. Because the guy gives an apartment, he wants two apartments, or he says,’ I give this apartment, but I want an apartment of the same size.’ It’s not like that, so what contractor would tear down that structure and rebuild it? So there needs to be a property agreement between the administration and the people. This is certainly not something they would expect from the government. And the poor need to hold his hand. Now that the poor have no money in their hands, there is no way to have their structure demolished and rebuilt. Then, especially in Turkey, 20 percent of the buildings are demolished due to problems from the ground, 80 percent due to problems from the structure. The bank gives loans for structural problems, but the bank does not give loans for Geophysical Research. So from tomorrow, banks should also give credit for the problems that come from the ground,” he said.
Referring to recent earthquakes in Malatya, Aydin and Çorum, Dr Ercan said: “they were of an earthquake size. Just in Çorum, there was an earthquake at the ezine market fracture of 4.1 magnitude, indicating that the ezine market fracture is alive. The other earthquakes were smaller in size, so there’s nothing to be afraid of. But none of the medium-sized earthquakes that we expect in Samos have yet happened, up to 5.5-5.6. This shows us that reservations continue there and that the damaged structures in Izmir will be demolished as soon as possible and that the deaths there will be prevented in the future. Now, earthquakes occur at very rare intervals in Aydin. Kusadasi is also a district of Aydın. Earthquakes are most common in the region where the island of Samos and Kusadasi are located. For this reason, the region that is most reserved for earthquakes is Aydin. But Efeler district is not. Districts with high earthquake reservations in Aydin are listed as Nazilli, Soke, Kusadasi, partners, Germencik and Efeler,” he said.
Dr. Ercan, who stated that the magnitude of the earthquake experienced off the coast of Izmir Seferihisar is 7 and the power of destruction is 9, said:
For Izmir, this earthquake did not happen in Izmir, it happened in Samos. The earthquake had a magnitude of 7 and a destructive force of 9. This is a bit of Turkey’s shame. I don’t expect a bigger earthquake than 7 in the Samos region, which means I don’t expect a bigger earthquake in Izmir.
The real earthquake of Izmir is an earthquake that will be on the fracture of Izmir. If there was a 7-magnitude earthquake in Izmir, we could talk about the death of many people.
Yeah, the fracture in Samos is empty, and I don’t expect an earthquake there. But the Izmir fracture continues its accumulation to create earthquakes in the future. Urban transformation is the only way. I said I didn’t expect an earthquake soon. We need to accelerate urban transformation.
We need to give up structural transformation, demolish it in the size of the neighborhood and district, and rebuild it in its place. This is what needs to be done as soon as possible, and municipalities do not have the ability to control these structures and force them to renovate them. If this authority of municipalities is given to municipalities, this work will accelerate. It’s never too late for anything.
Therefore, the Istanbul earthquake is 20-25 years away. There has not yet been a devastating earthquake in Istanbul. However, there was no earthquake in Marmara Ereglisi, so so far, laws, regulations have been issued, base maps for urban transformations have been issued, and the action to be taken after that will accelerate the work.